KORD / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

66%

37%

18%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 36.8¢Risks 36.75u

HRESNO 63.3¢Risks 63.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.25u · HRES −63.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	16.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	72.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	58.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	53.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	9.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	59.0%	—	34.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	65.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	0.6%	49.3%	—	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	54.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	1.4%	53.5%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	57.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	13.2%	67.0%	10.6%	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	61.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	28.3%	67.0%	32.3%	10.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	61.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	20.6%	54.8%	11.9%	8.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.4%	68.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	72.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	72.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	37%	68.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	66.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	61.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗