WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KORD / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
66%
WN2
66%
ICON
37%
EPS
18%
HRES
8%
Consensus
37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 36.8¢Risks 36.75u
VS
HRESNO 63.3¢Risks 63.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.25u · HRES −63.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T04:13:59+00:00AIFS Single: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00AIFS Single: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00AIFS Single: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00AIFS Single: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T04:13:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.9% · 2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.4% · 2026-10-18T04:13:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T04:13:59+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00IFS HRES: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-18T04:13:59+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00ICON: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00ICON: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00ICON: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00ICON: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00ICON: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00ICON: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00ICON: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00ICON: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00ICON: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:0010-18 04:1310-18 09:3210-18 14:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:13:59+00:0068.1%26.0%55.4%21.0%22.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:0068.1%26.0%67.4%21.0%22.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:0068.1%26.0%67.4%21.0%22.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:0068.1%26.0%67.4%21.0%22.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:0068.1%26.0%67.4%21.0%22.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:0065.8%26.0%67.4%7.7%36.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:0065.8%26.0%67.4%7.7%36.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:0065.8%26.0%67.4%7.7%36.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0065.8%26.0%67.4%7.7%36.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:0065.8%26.0%67.4%7.7%36.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:0065.8%17.6%65.8%7.7%36.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:0065.8%17.6%65.8%7.7%36.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:0065.8%17.6%65.8%7.7%36.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:0065.8%17.9%65.8%7.7%36.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:0065.8%17.9%65.8%7.7%36.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single66%72.7°F5.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 266%72.4°F4.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
ICON37%68.1°F7.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend37%69.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble18%66.6°F4.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES8%61.1°F6.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗