KORD / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

56%

29%

12%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.4¢Risks 46.40u

HRESNO 53.6¢Risks 53.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.60u · HRES −53.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	10.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	62.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	46.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	40.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	5.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	46.1%	—	23.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	52.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	0.2%	36.1%	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	40.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.4%	0.6%	39.6%	2.2%	6.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	42.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	6.9%	52.9%	5.3%	5.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	46.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	16.9%	52.3%	20.0%	5.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	46.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	11.1%	39.0%	5.7%	3.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.1%	52.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	76.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	73.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	69.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	66.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	64.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗