KORD / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

56%

29%

12%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.4¢Risks 46.40u

HRESNO 53.6¢Risks 53.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.60u · HRES −53.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	51.4%	15.9%	65.3%	16.1%	10.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	51.4%	15.9%	65.3%	16.1%	10.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	51.4%	15.9%	65.3%	16.1%	10.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	53.5%	15.9%	65.3%	16.1%	10.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	53.5%	15.9%	65.2%	16.1%	11.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00	53.5%	13.8%	65.2%	16.1%	11.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	53.5%	13.8%	65.2%	16.1%	11.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	53.5%	13.8%	65.2%	16.1%	11.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	53.5%	13.8%	57.8%	16.1%	11.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	53.5%	13.8%	57.8%	16.1%	11.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	53.5%	13.8%	57.8%	16.1%	11.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	40.4%	13.8%	57.8%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	40.4%	13.8%	57.8%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	40.4%	13.8%	57.8%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	40.4%	13.8%	57.8%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	40.4%	13.8%	57.8%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	40.4%	13.8%	40.0%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	40.4%	13.8%	40.0%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	40.4%	13.8%	40.0%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	54.8%	13.8%	40.0%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	54.8%	13.8%	40.0%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	54.8%	13.8%	40.0%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00	54.8%	13.8%	40.0%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	54.8%	13.8%	52.3%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	54.8%	13.8%	52.3%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	54.8%	13.8%	52.3%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	54.8%	13.8%	52.3%	13.2%	16.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00	51.5%	13.8%	52.3%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	51.5%	13.8%	52.3%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	51.5%	13.8%	52.3%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	51.5%	13.8%	52.3%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	51.5%	13.8%	52.3%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	51.5%	8.0%	49.1%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	51.5%	8.0%	49.1%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	51.5%	8.0%	49.1%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	51.5%	8.2%	49.1%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	51.5%	8.2%	49.1%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	51.5%	6.9%	49.1%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	51.5%	6.9%	49.1%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	51.5%	6.9%	53.4%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	51.5%	6.9%	53.4%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	51.5%	6.9%	53.4%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	51.5%	6.9%	53.4%	4.2%	26.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	52.2%	6.9%	53.4%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	52.2%	6.9%	53.4%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	52.2%	6.9%	53.4%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	52.2%	6.9%	53.4%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	52.2%	6.9%	68.9%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	52.2%	6.9%	68.9%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	52.2%	6.9%	68.9%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	53.7%	6.9%	68.9%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	53.7%	6.9%	68.9%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	53.7%	6.9%	68.9%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	53.7%	6.9%	68.9%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:00	53.7%	6.9%	68.9%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	53.7%	6.9%	72.6%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	53.7%	6.9%	72.6%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	53.7%	6.9%	72.6%	12.8%	42.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00	56.4%	6.9%	72.6%	8.1%	28.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	56.4%	6.9%	72.6%	8.1%	28.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	56.4%	6.9%	72.6%	8.1%	28.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	56.4%	6.9%	72.6%	8.1%	28.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00	56.4%	6.9%	72.6%	8.1%	28.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	56.4%	12.2%	84.7%	8.1%	28.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	56.4%	12.2%	84.7%	8.1%	28.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	76.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	73.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	69.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	66.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	64.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗