KORD / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

83%

66%

61%

44%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.4¢Risks 69.40u

EPSNO 30.6¢Risks 30.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.60u · EPS −30.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	52.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	31.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	72.9%	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	47.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	63.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	85.2%	—	28.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	46.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.6%	0.8%	60.0%	—	38.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	56.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	45.8%	50.7%	34.3%	40.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	50.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	58.0%	44.2%	59.4%	36.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	60.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	76.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	73.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	72.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	70.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	69.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	67.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗