KORD / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

83%

66%

61%

44%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.4¢Risks 69.40u

EPSNO 30.6¢Risks 30.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.60u · EPS −30.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	87.4%	46.3%	90.2%	54.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	87.4%	46.3%	90.2%	54.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	87.4%	46.3%	90.2%	54.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	83.1%	46.3%	90.2%	54.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	83.1%	46.3%	90.2%	54.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	83.1%	44.4%	90.2%	54.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	83.1%	44.4%	90.2%	54.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	83.1%	44.4%	93.4%	54.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	83.1%	44.4%	93.4%	54.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	83.1%	44.4%	93.4%	54.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	83.1%	44.4%	93.4%	54.9%	17.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	90.1%	44.4%	93.4%	61.0%	65.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	90.1%	44.4%	93.4%	61.0%	65.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	90.1%	44.4%	93.4%	61.0%	65.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	90.1%	44.4%	93.4%	61.0%	65.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	90.1%	44.4%	94.4%	61.0%	65.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	90.1%	44.4%	94.4%	61.0%	65.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	90.1%	44.4%	94.4%	61.0%	65.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	82.6%	44.4%	94.4%	61.0%	65.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	82.6%	44.4%	94.4%	61.0%	65.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	82.6%	44.4%	94.4%	61.0%	65.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	82.6%	44.4%	94.4%	61.0%	65.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	76.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	73.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	72.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	70.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	69.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	67.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗