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KORD / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
49%
WN2
46%
ICON
45%
HRES
41%
AIFS
17%
Consensus
40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 33.0¢Risks 33.00u
VS
AIFSNO 67.0¢Risks 67.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.00u · AIFS −67.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 59.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-11 06:0010-15 06:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSIFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.8%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.1%——1.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:001.1%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0012.3%——7.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:002.4%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:008.7%——8.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:002.4%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0017.2%——16.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0026.1%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:002.4%——10.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0020.8%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0011.2%——8.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:002.1%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.7%——14.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:003.2%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0033.0%——12.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0041.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0068.5%——12.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0040.9%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0040.2%——18.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0042.2%—14.7%—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0024.7%——17.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0031.6%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0043.6%——25.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0076.8%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0046.4%—59.0%18.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0074.2%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0029.1%—2.8%33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:003.0%—1.1%—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:004.8%—10.7%25.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:002.0%—15.5%—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:005.4%15.9%45.3%20.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——29.0%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend54%70.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble49%69.4°F4.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 246%68.9°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
ICON45%68.2°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES41%68.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single17%64.0°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261026-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 70°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗