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KORD / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
49%
WN2
46%
ICON
45%
HRES
41%
AIFS
17%
Consensus
40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 33.0¢Risks 33.00u
VS
AIFSNO 67.0¢Risks 67.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.00u · AIFS −67.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:0016.9%49.1%45.6%41.4%44.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0016.9%49.1%45.6%41.4%44.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0016.9%49.1%45.6%41.4%44.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0016.9%49.1%45.6%41.4%44.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:0016.9%49.1%45.6%41.4%44.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend54%70.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble49%69.4°F4.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 246%68.9°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
ICON45%68.2°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES41%68.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single17%64.0°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261026-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 70°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗