KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

78%

78%

51%

50%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.3¢Risks 70.30u

ICONNO 29.7¢Risks 29.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.70u · ICON −29.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	38.6%	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	23.6%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	16.3%	22.8%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	41.6%	10.5%	15.8%	—	34.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	33.7%	29.1%	35.0%	—	27.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	15.5%	18.9%	27.7%	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	25.5%	50.8%	29.5%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	59.9%	25.8%	38.5%	—	45.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	4.3%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	13.1%	58.7%	38.8%	—	32.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	23.5%	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	20.3%	59.1%	35.6%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	37.0%	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	36.6%	51.0%	51.9%	—	25.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	23.4%	37.2%	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	27.6%	49.0%	50.0%	—	23.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	32.6%	60.5%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	24.7%	46.7%	48.9%	0.0%	30.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	38.9%	43.3%	7.1%	—	33.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	55.8%	51.2%	62.6%	20.7%	31.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	46.4%	48.8%	61.9%	—	29.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	65.8%	45.0%	63.4%	—	32.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	68.7%	67.5%	50.0%	—	43.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	60.6%	73.9%	40.7%	54.0%	38.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	58.3%	72.4%	51.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	62.8%	87.8%	47.1%	65.5%	54.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	77.6%	89.5%	36.6%	—	45.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	82.9%	94.8%	73.7%	72.4%	65.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	78.5%	91.4%	66.1%	—	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	69.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0088
AIFS Single	78%	64.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.0497
WeatherNext 2	78%	63.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0506
National Blend	75%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.0620
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	51%	61.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.2391
ICON	50%	61.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.2500

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗