KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

78%

78%

51%

50%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.3¢Risks 70.30u

ICONNO 29.7¢Risks 29.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.70u · ICON −29.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:02+00:00	13.4%	81.2%	31.9%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	13.4%	81.2%	31.9%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	13.4%	81.2%	31.9%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	13.4%	81.2%	31.9%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	13.4%	81.2%	31.9%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00	13.4%	81.2%	27.9%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	13.4%	81.1%	27.9%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	13.4%	81.1%	27.9%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	18.6%	81.1%	27.9%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	18.7%	81.1%	28.0%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	18.7%	81.1%	28.0%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	18.7%	80.6%	28.0%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	18.7%	80.6%	34.4%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	18.7%	80.6%	34.4%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	18.7%	80.6%	34.4%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	18.7%	80.6%	34.4%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	18.7%	80.6%	34.4%	66.5%	63.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	18.7%	80.6%	34.4%	66.5%	63.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	18.7%	80.6%	34.4%	66.5%	63.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	18.7%	80.6%	34.4%	66.5%	63.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	18.7%	80.6%	36.6%	66.5%	63.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	18.7%	80.6%	36.6%	66.5%	63.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	18.7%	80.6%	36.6%	66.5%	63.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	18.7%	80.6%	36.6%	66.5%	63.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	17.3%	80.6%	36.6%	66.5%	63.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	17.3%	80.6%	36.6%	66.5%	63.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	17.3%	80.6%	36.6%	66.5%	63.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:41+00:00	37.2%	87.7%	41.5%	46.8%	24.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	37.2%	87.7%	41.5%	46.8%	24.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	37.2%	87.7%	43.6%	46.8%	24.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	37.2%	87.7%	43.6%	46.8%	24.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	37.2%	87.7%	43.6%	46.8%	24.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	37.2%	87.7%	43.6%	46.8%	24.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	38.0%	87.7%	43.6%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	38.0%	87.7%	43.6%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	38.0%	87.7%	43.6%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	38.0%	87.7%	43.6%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	38.0%	87.7%	42.5%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	38.0%	87.7%	42.5%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	38.0%	87.7%	42.5%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	63.6%	87.7%	42.5%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	63.6%	87.7%	42.5%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	63.6%	87.7%	42.5%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:44+00:00	63.6%	87.7%	42.5%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	63.6%	87.7%	42.5%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	63.6%	87.7%	44.7%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	63.6%	87.7%	44.7%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	63.6%	87.7%	44.7%	16.4%	34.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	66.3%	87.7%	44.7%	16.4%	43.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	66.3%	87.7%	44.7%	16.4%	43.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	66.3%	87.7%	44.7%	16.4%	43.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	66.3%	87.7%	44.7%	16.4%	43.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	66.3%	87.7%	44.7%	16.4%	43.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	66.3%	87.5%	52.4%	16.4%	43.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	66.3%	87.5%	52.4%	16.4%	43.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	66.3%	87.5%	52.4%	16.4%	43.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	70.4%	87.5%	52.4%	33.5%	43.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	70.4%	87.3%	52.4%	33.5%	43.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:34+00:00	67.1%	88.1%	57.1%	57.1%	34.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	67.1%	88.1%	58.2%	57.1%	34.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	67.1%	88.1%	58.2%	57.1%	34.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	67.1%	88.1%	58.2%	57.1%	34.3%
2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00	78.4%	88.1%	58.2%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00	78.4%	88.1%	58.2%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	78.4%	88.1%	58.2%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	78.4%	88.1%	58.2%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	78.4%	88.1%	58.2%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	78.4%	89.4%	69.7%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	78.4%	89.4%	69.7%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	78.4%	89.4%	69.7%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	76.9%	89.4%	69.7%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	77.0%	89.0%	69.7%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:17+00:00	77.0%	90.2%	69.7%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	77.0%	90.2%	69.7%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	77.0%	90.2%	68.6%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	77.0%	90.2%	68.6%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	77.0%	90.2%	68.6%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	77.0%	90.2%	68.6%	45.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	73.9%	90.2%	68.6%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	73.9%	90.2%	68.6%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	73.9%	90.2%	68.6%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	73.9%	90.2%	68.6%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	73.9%	90.2%	65.1%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	73.9%	90.2%	65.1%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	73.9%	90.2%	65.1%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	73.9%	90.2%	65.1%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	74.7%	90.2%	65.1%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	74.7%	90.2%	65.1%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	74.7%	90.2%	65.1%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:47+00:00	74.7%	90.2%	65.1%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	74.7%	90.2%	68.6%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	74.7%	90.2%	68.6%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	74.7%	90.2%	68.6%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	74.7%	90.2%	68.6%	33.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00	77.7%	90.2%	68.6%	51.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	77.7%	90.2%	68.6%	51.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	77.7%	90.2%	68.6%	51.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	77.7%	90.2%	68.6%	51.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	77.7%	91.3%	77.5%	51.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	77.7%	91.3%	77.5%	51.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	77.7%	91.3%	77.5%	51.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	77.7%	91.3%	77.5%	51.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	77.7%	90.6%	77.5%	51.1%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	69.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0088
AIFS Single	78%	64.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.0497
WeatherNext 2	78%	63.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0506
National Blend	75%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.0620
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	51%	61.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.2391
ICON	50%	61.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.2500

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗