KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

68%

68%

39%

24%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.4¢Risks 53.45u

ICONNO 46.6¢Risks 46.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.55u · ICON −46.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	27.7%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	14.8%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	9.3%	13.9%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	28.6%	5.4%	8.7%	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	21.5%	17.9%	22.6%	—	17.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	8.1%	10.3%	16.4%	—	16.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	14.5%	35.2%	17.4%	—	20.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	43.4%	14.3%	23.8%	—	30.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	1.6%	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	5.9%	41.3%	23.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	12.1%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	9.8%	40.9%	20.3%	—	12.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	21.0%	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	20.3%	32.1%	33.0%	—	12.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	11.0%	20.4%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	13.4%	29.4%	30.3%	—	10.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	16.3%	39.5%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	10.9%	26.4%	28.2%	0.0%	14.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	19.8%	23.1%	2.1%	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	33.1%	28.9%	39.6%	8.1%	14.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	24.4%	26.3%	38.1%	—	12.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	41.3%	22.7%	38.9%	—	13.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.1%	43.6%	42.3%	25.9%	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	34.3%	48.7%	18.2%	28.4%	16.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	31.2%	45.8%	25.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	34.5%	66.9%	21.2%	37.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	68.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	64.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	65.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	62.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	24%	61.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗