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KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
83%
WN2
68%
AIFS
68%
HRES
39%
ICON
24%
Consensus
58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 53.4¢Risks 53.45u
VS
ICONNO 46.6¢Risks 46.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.55u · ICON −46.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.1% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.1% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.1% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.1% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.1% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.1% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.1% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.1% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 30.4% · 2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00IFS HRES: 30.4% · 2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00IFS HRES: 30.4% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00IFS HRES: 30.4% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00IFS HRES: 30.4% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00IFS HRES: 30.4% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 28.7% · 2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00ICON: 28.7% · 2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00ICON: 28.7% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00ICON: 28.7% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00ICON: 28.7% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00ICON: 28.7% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0010-18 14:5610-18 23:1310-19 06:47
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:0060.0%83.4%52.7%30.4%28.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:0060.0%82.8%52.7%30.4%28.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:0060.0%82.8%52.7%30.4%28.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:0060.0%82.8%54.1%30.4%28.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:0060.0%82.8%54.1%30.4%28.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:0060.0%82.8%54.1%30.4%28.7%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:0063.9%82.8%54.1%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:0063.9%82.8%54.1%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:0063.9%82.8%54.1%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:0063.9%82.8%54.1%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:0063.9%82.8%54.1%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:0063.9%82.8%60.8%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:0063.9%82.8%60.8%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:0063.9%82.8%60.8%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:0067.6%82.8%60.8%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:0067.6%82.8%60.8%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:0067.6%82.8%60.8%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:0067.6%82.8%60.8%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:0067.6%82.8%60.8%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:0067.6%82.8%68.5%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:0067.6%82.8%68.5%39.4%24.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0067.6%82.8%68.5%39.4%24.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble83%68.8°F5.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 268%64.9°F2.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single68%65.3°F3.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
NWS forecast59%64.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
National Blend59%64.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES39%62.5°F3.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
ICON24%61.0°F3.5°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗