KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

35%

34%

27%

26%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.4¢Risks 15.70u

ICONNO 68.6¢Risks 34.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.30u · ICON −34.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.6%	11.3%	0.5%	—	0.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	1.8%	2.2%	0.8%	—	2.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.3%	2.9%	2.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.3%	1.5%	0.1%	—	0.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.0%	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	13.1%	0.5%	1.7%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.2%	1.4%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.5%	0.1%	1.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	10.0%	0.4%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	13.6%	1.5%	2.7%	—	4.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	5.1%	2.2%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	19.7%	2.1%	9.0%	0.0%	13.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	18.3%	8.3%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	6.6%	23.8%	14.9%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	42.2%	32.6%	0.0%	—	12.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	21.5%	34.1%	18.3%	0.0%	12.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	21.6%	35.9%	20.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	27.6%	41.3%	19.1%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	18.2%	30.2%	22.8%	—	15.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	2.6%	43.3%	20.0%	10.7%	12.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	26.5%	45.8%	22.1%	—	14.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	48.5%	45.7%	18.2%	12.2%	19.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	48.5%	19.2%	—	16.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	73.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	72.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	73.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	72.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	26%	72.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗