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KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
37%
EPS
35%
HRES
34%
WN2
27%
ICON
26%
Consensus
36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 31.4¢Risks 15.70u
VS
ICONNO 68.6¢Risks 34.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.30u · ICON −34.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00AIFS Single: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00AIFS Single: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 07:0610-20 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:0038.0%34.7%23.5%34.3%2.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0038.0%34.7%23.5%34.3%2.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:0038.0%34.7%26.8%34.3%2.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0038.0%34.7%26.8%34.3%2.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0038.0%34.7%26.8%34.3%2.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:0037.2%34.7%26.8%34.3%25.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0037.2%34.7%26.8%34.3%25.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:0037.2%34.7%26.8%34.3%25.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0037.2%34.7%26.8%34.3%25.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast59%75.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend41%74.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single37%73.5°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble35%72.6°F4.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES34%73.0°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 227%72.7°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
ICON26%72.2°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗