KPDX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

63%

53%

46%

42%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

ICONNO 33.6¢Risks 33.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.55u · ICON −33.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	78.5%	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	73.8%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	17.6%	60.7%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	67.0%	50.7%	19.9%	—	60.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	17.0%	67.0%	84.8%	—	62.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	55.3%	5.8%	78.9%	—	53.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	50.0%	88.9%	46.8%	—	81.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	85.6%	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	89.5%	92.3%	79.3%	—	63.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	26.7%	82.7%	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	53.5%	87.4%	91.0%	—	60.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	78.5%	87.9%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	71.0%	80.4%	70.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	65.7%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	56.8%	93.2%	66.1%	—	72.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	24.1%	98.7%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	59.2%	94.5%	74.1%	—	70.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	71.2%	94.2%	—	—	81.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	96.0%	95.3%	72.7%	75.3%	77.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	94.6%	28.6%	—	73.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	69.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	61.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	60.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	58.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	58.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261022-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗