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KPDX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
91%
WN2
63%
HRES
53%
AIFS
46%
ICON
42%
Consensus
60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 66.5¢Risks 66.45u
VS
ICONNO 33.6¢Risks 33.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.55u · ICON −33.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 66.3% · 2026-10-16T04:25:03+00:00AIFS Single: 66.3% · 2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00AIFS Single: 66.3% · 2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00AIFS Single: 66.3% · 2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-16T04:25:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-16T04:25:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.8% · 2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.8% · 2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.8% · 2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.8% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.8% · 2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.8% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.8% · 2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.8% · 2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.4% · 2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.4% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.4% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.4% · 2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.4% · 2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-10-16T04:25:03+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00IFS HRES: 53.0% · 2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00IFS HRES: 53.0% · 2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T04:25:03+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00ICON: 41.7% · 2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:0010-16 04:2510-16 09:4110-16 14:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T04:25:03+00:0066.3%84.8%57.0%68.5%76.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:0066.3%84.8%57.8%68.5%76.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:0066.3%84.8%57.8%68.5%76.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:0066.3%84.8%57.8%68.5%76.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:0060.2%84.8%57.8%68.5%41.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:0060.2%84.8%57.8%68.5%41.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:0060.2%84.8%57.8%68.5%41.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:0060.2%84.8%57.8%68.5%41.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:0060.2%84.8%57.8%68.5%41.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:0060.2%91.2%63.4%68.5%41.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:0060.2%91.2%63.4%68.5%41.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:0060.2%91.2%63.4%68.5%41.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:0045.6%91.2%63.4%53.0%41.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:0045.6%91.2%63.4%53.0%41.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble91%69.3°F7.2°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 263%61.1°F4.7°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
National Blend55%60.0°F4.5°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%60.0°F5.9°F2026-10-16 02:00Pending
IFS HRES53%60.0°F6.6°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
AIFS Single46%58.9°F5.4°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
ICON42%58.0°F7.1°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261022-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗