KPDX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

14%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.9¢Risks 41.95u

WN2NO 58.1¢Risks 58.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.05u · WN2 −58.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	21.6%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	16.0%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	0.4%	7.7%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	9.3%	4.0%	0.5%	—	6.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.3%	8.2%	21.0%	—	6.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.8%	0.0%	13.4%	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	2.3%	21.8%	1.9%	—	13.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	16.3%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	20.1%	25.1%	10.1%	—	3.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.3%	11.5%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	1.7%	14.6%	19.6%	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	7.1%	14.0%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.9%	7.3%	3.8%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	2.4%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	17.1%	2.1%	—	3.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.1%	39.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.9%	16.3%	2.6%	—	2.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.8%	13.8%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	16.2%	14.3%	1.6%	2.0%	2.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	11.2%	0.0%	—	1.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	74.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	65.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	64.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	63.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	64.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	61.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261022-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗