KPDX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

14%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.0¢Risks 42.05u

WN2NO 58.0¢Risks 57.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.95u · WN2 −57.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:31+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	3.8%	9.8%	13.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	3.8%	9.8%	13.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	3.8%	9.8%	13.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	3.8%	9.8%	13.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:47+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	5.3%	9.8%	13.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	5.3%	9.8%	13.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	14.3%	47.1%	5.3%	9.8%	13.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00	14.3%	47.1%	5.3%	9.8%	13.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	15.0%	47.1%	5.5%	10.0%	13.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	15.0%	47.1%	5.5%	10.0%	13.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:42+00:00	15.0%	47.8%	5.5%	10.0%	13.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	15.0%	47.8%	5.5%	10.0%	13.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	15.0%	47.8%	4.9%	10.0%	13.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	15.0%	47.8%	4.9%	10.0%	13.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	15.0%	47.8%	4.9%	10.0%	13.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	15.0%	47.8%	4.9%	10.0%	13.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	1.5%	47.8%	4.9%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	1.5%	47.8%	4.9%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	1.5%	47.8%	4.9%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	1.5%	47.8%	4.9%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	1.5%	47.8%	3.7%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	1.5%	47.8%	3.7%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	1.5%	47.8%	3.7%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	9.2%	47.8%	3.7%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	9.2%	47.8%	3.7%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	9.2%	47.8%	3.7%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:44+00:00	9.2%	47.8%	3.7%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-16T04:25:04+00:00	9.2%	47.8%	3.7%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	9.2%	47.8%	3.8%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	9.2%	47.8%	3.8%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	9.2%	47.8%	3.8%	14.1%	38.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	5.5%	47.8%	3.8%	14.1%	5.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	5.5%	47.8%	3.8%	14.1%	5.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	5.5%	47.8%	3.8%	14.1%	5.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	5.5%	47.8%	3.8%	14.1%	5.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	5.5%	47.8%	3.8%	14.1%	5.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	5.5%	48.9%	3.6%	14.1%	5.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	5.5%	48.9%	3.6%	14.1%	5.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	5.5%	48.9%	3.6%	14.1%	5.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	2.5%	48.9%	3.6%	7.5%	5.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	2.5%	48.9%	3.6%	7.5%	5.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	2.5%	50.0%	3.6%	7.5%	5.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	2.5%	50.0%	3.6%	7.5%	5.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	2.5%	50.0%	3.6%	7.5%	5.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	2.5%	50.0%	2.2%	7.5%	5.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	2.5%	50.0%	2.2%	7.5%	5.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	2.5%	50.0%	2.2%	7.5%	5.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	1.5%	50.0%	2.2%	7.5%	21.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	1.5%	50.0%	2.2%	7.5%	21.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	1.5%	50.0%	2.2%	7.5%	21.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	1.5%	50.0%	2.2%	7.5%	21.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	1.5%	50.0%	2.2%	4.5%	21.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	1.5%	50.0%	1.7%	4.5%	21.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	1.5%	50.0%	1.7%	4.5%	21.6%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	1.5%	50.0%	1.7%	4.5%	21.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	2.0%	50.0%	1.7%	4.5%	21.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	2.0%	50.0%	1.7%	4.5%	21.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	2.0%	50.0%	1.7%	4.5%	21.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	2.0%	50.0%	1.7%	4.5%	21.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:34+00:00	2.0%	50.0%	1.7%	4.5%	21.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	2.0%	50.0%	4.5%	4.5%	21.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	2.0%	50.0%	4.5%	4.5%	21.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	2.0%	50.0%	4.5%	4.5%	21.6%
2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00	22.2%	50.0%	4.5%	26.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00	22.2%	50.0%	4.5%	26.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	22.2%	50.0%	4.5%	26.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	22.2%	50.0%	4.5%	26.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	22.2%	50.0%	4.5%	26.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	22.2%	71.8%	7.2%	26.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	22.2%	71.8%	7.2%	26.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	22.2%	71.8%	7.2%	26.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	8.8%	71.8%	7.2%	26.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	8.8%	71.8%	7.2%	26.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:19+00:00	8.8%	72.6%	7.2%	26.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	8.8%	72.6%	7.2%	26.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	8.8%	72.6%	3.4%	26.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	8.8%	72.6%	3.4%	26.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	8.8%	72.6%	3.4%	26.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	8.8%	72.6%	3.4%	26.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	10.2%	72.6%	3.4%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	10.2%	72.6%	3.4%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	10.2%	72.6%	3.4%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	10.2%	72.6%	3.4%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	10.2%	72.9%	2.4%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	10.2%	72.9%	2.4%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	10.2%	72.9%	2.4%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	10.2%	72.9%	2.4%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	12.9%	72.9%	2.4%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	12.9%	72.9%	2.4%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	12.9%	72.9%	2.4%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:49+00:00	12.9%	72.9%	2.4%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	12.9%	72.9%	4.2%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	12.9%	72.9%	4.2%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	12.9%	72.9%	4.2%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	12.9%	72.9%	4.2%	2.9%	41.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00	14.3%	72.9%	4.2%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	14.3%	72.9%	4.2%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	14.3%	72.9%	4.2%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	14.3%	72.9%	4.2%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	14.3%	77.7%	2.7%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	14.3%	77.7%	2.7%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	14.3%	77.7%	2.7%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	14.3%	77.7%	2.7%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	13.8%	77.7%	2.7%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	13.8%	77.7%	2.7%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	13.8%	76.0%	2.7%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	13.8%	76.0%	2.7%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	13.8%	76.0%	2.8%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	13.8%	76.0%	2.8%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	13.8%	76.0%	2.8%	3.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	8.8%	76.0%	2.8%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	8.8%	76.0%	2.8%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	8.8%	76.0%	2.8%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	8.8%	76.0%	2.8%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	8.8%	76.0%	2.8%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	8.8%	76.0%	2.2%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	8.8%	76.0%	2.2%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	8.8%	76.0%	2.2%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	14.8%	76.0%	2.2%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	14.8%	76.0%	2.2%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	14.8%	76.0%	2.2%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	14.8%	76.0%	2.2%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:30+00:00	14.8%	76.0%	2.2%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	14.8%	76.0%	6.0%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	14.8%	76.0%	6.0%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	14.8%	76.0%	6.0%	0.7%	11.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00	14.1%	76.0%	6.0%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	14.1%	76.0%	6.0%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	14.1%	76.0%	6.0%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	14.1%	76.0%	6.0%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	14.1%	76.0%	6.0%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00	14.1%	83.8%	4.5%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	14.1%	83.8%	4.5%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	14.1%	83.8%	4.5%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	8.0%	83.8%	4.5%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	4.5%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	4.5%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	4.5%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	4.5%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	4.2%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	4.2%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	4.2%	12.6%	1.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	3.9%	83.8%	4.2%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	3.9%	83.8%	4.2%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	3.9%	83.8%	4.2%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	3.9%	83.8%	4.2%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	3.9%	83.8%	4.2%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	3.9%	83.8%	0.7%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:09+00:00	3.9%	83.8%	0.7%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	3.9%	83.8%	0.7%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	9.4%	83.8%	0.7%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	9.4%	83.8%	0.7%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	9.4%	83.8%	0.7%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	9.4%	83.8%	0.7%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	9.4%	83.8%	0.7%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	9.4%	83.8%	3.0%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	9.4%	83.8%	3.0%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	9.4%	83.8%	3.0%	14.1%	1.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	5.4%	83.8%	3.0%	14.1%	13.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	5.4%	83.8%	3.0%	14.1%	13.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00	5.4%	83.8%	3.0%	14.1%	13.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	5.4%	83.8%	3.0%	14.1%	13.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:15+00:00	5.4%	84.0%	0.4%	13.1%	13.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	5.4%	84.0%	0.4%	13.1%	13.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	5.4%	84.0%	0.4%	13.1%	13.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	5.4%	84.0%	0.4%	13.1%	13.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	5.4%	84.0%	0.4%	13.1%	14.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	5.4%	84.0%	0.4%	13.1%	14.3%
2026-10-20T15:32:43+00:00	5.4%	83.5%	0.4%	13.1%	14.3%
2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00	5.4%	83.5%	0.4%	13.1%	14.3%
2026-10-20T17:03:30+00:00	7.2%	83.5%	0.6%	13.1%	14.3%
2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00	7.2%	83.5%	0.6%	13.1%	14.3%
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00	7.2%	83.5%	0.6%	13.1%	14.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	74.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	65.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	64.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	63.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	64.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	61.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261022-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗