KPDX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

52%

19%

19%

16%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.4¢Risks 39.35u

WN2NO 60.7¢Risks 60.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.65u · WN2 −60.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	86.7%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	1.1%	71.2%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	36.9%	78.1%	2.3%	—	21.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	14.0%	82.5%	4.2%	—	15.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	2.9%	40.9%	8.7%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	60.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	75.2%	43.6%	12.3%	—	11.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.1%	61.5%	3.8%	—	8.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	0.3%	60.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	28.4%	88.7%	33.8%	0.1%	33.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	81.0%	—	—	64.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	63%	63.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	61.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	19%	55.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	55.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	56.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗