KPDX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

52%

19%

19%

16%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.4¢Risks 39.35u

WN2NO 60.7¢Risks 60.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.65u · WN2 −60.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:50+00:00	3.8%	67.2%	16.4%	66.2%	61.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	3.8%	67.2%	16.4%	66.2%	61.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	3.8%	67.2%	16.4%	66.2%	61.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	3.8%	67.2%	16.4%	66.2%	61.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	3.8%	67.2%	16.4%	66.2%	61.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00	3.0%	67.2%	16.4%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	3.0%	67.2%	16.4%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	3.0%	67.2%	16.4%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	3.0%	67.2%	16.4%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	3.0%	55.1%	14.3%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	3.0%	55.1%	14.3%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	3.0%	55.1%	14.3%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	3.0%	55.1%	14.3%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	70.4%	55.0%	14.2%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	70.4%	55.0%	14.2%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	70.4%	52.5%	14.2%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	70.4%	52.5%	14.2%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	70.4%	52.5%	20.2%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	70.4%	52.5%	20.2%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	70.4%	52.5%	20.2%	15.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	11.5%	52.5%	20.2%	18.6%	19.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	11.5%	52.5%	20.2%	18.6%	19.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	11.5%	52.5%	20.2%	18.6%	19.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	11.5%	52.5%	20.2%	18.6%	19.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	11.5%	52.5%	20.2%	18.6%	19.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	11.5%	52.5%	15.7%	18.6%	19.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	11.5%	52.5%	15.7%	18.6%	19.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	11.5%	52.5%	15.7%	18.6%	19.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	63.0%	52.5%	15.7%	18.6%	19.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	63.0%	52.5%	15.7%	18.6%	19.3%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	63.0%	52.5%	15.7%	18.6%	19.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	63.0%	52.5%	15.7%	18.6%	19.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	63%	63.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	61.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	19%	55.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	55.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	56.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗