KPDX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

55%

43%

21%

14%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 39.1¢Risks 39.05u

AIFSNO 60.9¢Risks 60.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +60.95u · AIFS −60.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	51.8%	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	78.0%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	1.5%	66.4%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	85.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	49.3%	72.5%	2.5%	—	45.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	39.2%	86.9%	82.0%	19.4%	60.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	94.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	64%	62.6°F	8.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	60.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	60.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	58.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	51.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	53.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261026-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗