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KPDX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
64%
WN2
55%
HRES
43%
ICON
21%
AIFS
14%
Consensus
39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 39.1¢Risks 39.05u
VS
AIFSNO 60.9¢Risks 60.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +60.95u · AIFS −60.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:0013.7%64.4%55.1%43.2%20.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:0013.7%64.4%55.1%43.2%20.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:0013.7%64.4%55.1%43.2%20.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0013.7%64.4%55.1%43.2%20.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:0013.7%64.4%55.1%43.2%20.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble64%62.6°F8.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 255%60.2°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
National Blend54%60.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES43%58.4°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON21%51.3°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single14%53.2°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261026-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗