KPHL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

68%

68%

49%

38%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.4¢Risks 60.40u

HRESNO 39.6¢Risks 39.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.60u · HRES −39.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	73.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	36.8%	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	50.6%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	92.7%	—	—	75.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	46.0%	90.1%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	74.3%	78.6%	37.6%	—	50.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	84.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	60.8%	63.6%	54.4%	—	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	74.2%	66.3%	84.0%	—	60.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	75.8%	67.0%	77.6%	—	35.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	30.4%	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	62.3%	36.1%	61.5%	—	38.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	55.1%	49.1%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	29.1%	45.6%	45.6%	—	29.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	40.2%	55.4%	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	19.0%	50.0%	30.6%	—	21.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	37.9%	49.0%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	48.0%	49.0%	48.0%	—	19.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	23.4%	56.0%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	41.8%	53.1%	32.1%	—	17.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	52.1%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	66.9%	43.5%	51.1%	—	22.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	36.7%	44.4%	1.9%	—	16.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	57.0%	46.5%	14.7%	8.1%	17.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	60.7%	51.2%	13.2%	—	22.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	71.3%	51.2%	43.8%	57.4%	32.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	50.0%	47.4%	—	31.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	66.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	65.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	65.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	49%	63.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	62.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗