KPHL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

68%

68%

49%

38%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.4¢Risks 60.40u

HRESNO 39.6¢Risks 39.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.60u · HRES −39.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00	70.7%	93.6%	69.5%	39.7%	33.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	70.7%	93.6%	72.2%	39.7%	33.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	70.7%	93.6%	72.2%	39.7%	33.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	70.7%	93.6%	72.2%	39.7%	33.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	70.7%	93.6%	72.2%	39.7%	33.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:00	55.6%	93.6%	72.2%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	55.6%	93.6%	72.2%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	55.6%	93.6%	72.2%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	55.6%	93.6%	72.2%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:32+00:00	55.6%	88.8%	75.3%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:10+00:00	55.6%	88.8%	75.3%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	55.6%	88.8%	75.3%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	55.6%	88.8%	75.3%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	66.3%	88.1%	75.3%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:27+00:00	66.3%	88.1%	75.3%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	66.3%	83.1%	75.3%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	66.3%	83.1%	75.3%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	66.3%	83.1%	74.3%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:14+00:00	66.3%	83.1%	74.3%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	66.3%	83.1%	74.3%	32.7%	55.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	59.3%	83.1%	74.3%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	59.3%	83.1%	74.3%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	59.3%	83.1%	74.3%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	59.3%	83.1%	74.3%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	59.3%	83.1%	74.3%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	59.3%	83.1%	68.3%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	59.3%	83.1%	68.3%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	59.3%	83.1%	68.3%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	68.0%	83.1%	68.3%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	68.0%	83.1%	68.3%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	68.0%	83.1%	68.3%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	68.0%	83.1%	68.3%	37.7%	49.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	66.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	65.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	65.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	49%	63.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	62.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗