KPHL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

89%

69%

62%

55%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.0¢Risks 75.95u

ICONNO 24.0¢Risks 24.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.05u · ICON −24.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	89.6%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	82.4%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	27.1%	54.0%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.4%	72.5%	57.0%	63.8%	—	43.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	88.0%	16.1%	47.8%	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	27.7%	12.9%	65.6%	—	28.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	47.6%	64.8%	71.2%	—	34.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	86.1%	24.3%	68.8%	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	33.8%	83.2%	63.9%	—	45.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	66.6%	76.0%	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	81.6%	83.3%	56.1%	—	55.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	72.1%	85.0%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	84.0%	88.1%	54.6%	—	58.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	80.4%	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	90.6%	87.4%	86.9%	63.4%	—	63.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	91.6%	87.6%	78.1%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	81.7%	88.2%	41.8%	—	63.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	88.4%	85.0%	—	—	67.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	86.3%	89.6%	60.8%	71.8%	71.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	91.7%	0.4%	—	69.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	68.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	66.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	64.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	55%	64.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗