KPHL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

89%

69%

62%

55%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.0¢Risks 75.95u

ICONNO 24.0¢Risks 24.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.05u · ICON −24.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:07+00:00	32.2%	51.1%	74.7%	29.8%	92.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	32.2%	51.1%	74.7%	29.8%	92.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	32.2%	51.1%	74.7%	29.8%	92.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	32.2%	51.1%	83.2%	29.8%	92.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	32.2%	51.1%	83.2%	29.8%	92.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	32.2%	51.1%	83.2%	29.8%	92.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:00	21.9%	51.1%	83.2%	29.8%	53.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	21.9%	51.1%	83.2%	29.8%	53.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	21.9%	51.1%	83.2%	29.8%	53.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	21.9%	51.1%	83.2%	29.8%	53.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	21.9%	51.1%	83.2%	60.7%	53.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00	21.9%	51.1%	92.7%	60.7%	53.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	21.9%	51.1%	92.7%	60.7%	53.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	21.9%	51.1%	92.7%	60.7%	53.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	24.1%	51.1%	92.7%	60.7%	53.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	24.1%	51.1%	92.7%	60.7%	53.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	24.1%	51.1%	92.7%	60.7%	53.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	24.1%	51.1%	92.7%	60.7%	53.4%
2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:00	24.1%	51.1%	92.7%	60.7%	53.4%
2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:00	24.1%	51.1%	92.7%	60.7%	53.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	24.1%	51.1%	90.8%	60.7%	53.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	24.1%	51.1%	90.8%	60.7%	53.4%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00	35.1%	51.1%	90.8%	60.9%	65.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	35.1%	51.1%	90.8%	60.9%	65.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00	35.1%	51.1%	90.8%	60.9%	65.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	35.1%	51.1%	90.8%	60.9%	65.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	35.1%	51.1%	90.8%	60.9%	65.5%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	35.1%	61.1%	95.6%	60.9%	65.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	35.1%	61.1%	95.6%	60.9%	65.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	35.1%	61.1%	95.6%	60.9%	65.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	96.4%	61.1%	95.6%	60.9%	65.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	96.4%	61.1%	95.6%	60.9%	65.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	96.4%	62.1%	95.6%	60.9%	65.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	96.4%	62.1%	95.6%	60.9%	65.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	96.4%	62.1%	95.8%	60.9%	65.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	96.4%	62.1%	95.8%	60.9%	65.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	96.4%	62.1%	95.8%	60.9%	65.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	96.4%	62.1%	95.8%	60.9%	65.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	83.9%	62.1%	95.8%	69.2%	54.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	83.9%	62.1%	95.8%	69.2%	54.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	83.9%	62.1%	95.8%	69.2%	54.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00	83.9%	62.1%	95.8%	69.2%	54.6%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	83.9%	62.1%	89.3%	69.2%	54.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	83.9%	62.1%	89.3%	69.2%	54.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	83.9%	62.1%	89.3%	69.2%	54.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	83.9%	62.1%	89.3%	69.2%	54.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	97.3%	62.1%	89.3%	69.2%	54.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	97.3%	62.1%	89.3%	69.2%	54.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	97.3%	62.1%	89.3%	69.2%	54.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	68.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	66.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	64.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	55%	64.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗