KPHL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

94%

85%

67%

28%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.5¢Risks 63.45u

HRESNO 36.5¢Risks 36.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.55u · HRES −36.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	84.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	45.9%	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	41.3%	—	—	77.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	32.4%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	67.6%	72.9%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	40.9%	95.8%	72.0%	—	74.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	89.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	59.4%	75.1%	81.6%	—	55.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	42.4%	84.5%	53.0%	—	51.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	86.8%	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	54.8%	84.1%	75.2%	—	40.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	46.7%	61.3%	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	55.0%	84.3%	60.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	52.6%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	54.4%	77.2%	51.7%	—	24.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	55.4%	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	50.9%	67.0%	20.9%	—	17.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	50.9%	69.1%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	60.6%	66.1%	33.0%	57.7%	21.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	70.1%	—	—	21.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	66.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	64.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	63.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	67%	61.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	56.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗