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KPHL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
99%
WN2
94%
AIFS
85%
ICON
67%
HRES
28%
Consensus
86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 63.5¢Risks 63.45u
VS
HRESNO 36.5¢Risks 36.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.55u · HRES −36.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00AIFS Single: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00AIFS Single: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00AIFS Single: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00AIFS Single: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00AIFS Single: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00AIFS Single: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00ICON: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00ICON: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00ICON: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:0010-20 04:5110-20 10:0710-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:0082.0%98.8%92.7%26.1%64.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:0082.0%98.8%93.7%26.1%64.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0082.0%98.8%93.7%26.1%64.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:0082.0%98.8%93.7%26.1%64.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:0084.9%98.8%93.7%26.1%67.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:0084.9%98.8%93.7%26.1%67.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:0084.9%98.8%93.7%26.1%67.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0084.9%98.8%93.7%26.1%67.4%
2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:0084.9%98.9%93.9%28.0%67.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:0084.9%98.9%93.9%28.0%67.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:0084.9%98.9%93.9%28.0%67.4%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0084.9%98.9%93.9%28.0%67.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:0085.0%98.9%93.9%28.0%67.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:0085.0%98.9%93.9%28.0%67.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble99%66.0°F2.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 294%64.7°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single85%63.9°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend78%63.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON67%61.3°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%60.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES28%56.9°F4.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗