KPHL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

84%

70%

51%

46%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.4¢Risks 65.40u

EPSNO 34.6¢Risks 34.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.60u · EPS −34.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	11.2%	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	46.8%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	4.5%	34.8%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	70.2%	55.6%	45.8%	10.5%	—	30.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	34.3%	27.9%	8.7%	—	27.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	52.3%	30.9%	23.9%	—	23.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	54.0%	46.0%	28.1%	44.4%	32.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	44.3%	—	—	35.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	70.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	70%	68.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	65.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	65.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗