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KPHL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
85%
AIFS
84%
ICON
70%
HRES
51%
EPS
46%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 65.4¢Risks 65.40u
VS
EPSNO 34.6¢Risks 34.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.60u · EPS −34.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00AIFS Single: 83.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 83.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 83.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00AIFS Single: 83.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00AIFS Single: 83.9% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00AIFS Single: 83.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00AIFS Single: 83.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00AIFS Single: 83.9% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.9% · 2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.9% · 2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 50.7% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00IFS HRES: 50.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS HRES: 50.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS HRES: 50.7% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 50.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS HRES: 50.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00ICON: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00ICON: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00ICON: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00ICON: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00ICON: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00ICON: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:0010-18 08:0010-20 01:4710-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:0078.8%38.9%68.9%31.5%29.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:0078.8%38.9%68.9%31.5%29.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:0078.8%38.9%68.9%31.5%29.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:0078.8%38.9%68.9%31.5%29.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:0080.3%27.5%75.3%51.8%57.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:0080.3%27.5%75.3%51.8%57.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:0080.3%27.5%75.3%51.8%57.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:0080.3%27.5%81.0%51.8%57.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:0080.3%27.5%81.0%51.8%57.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:0080.3%27.5%81.0%51.8%57.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:0080.8%27.5%81.0%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:0080.8%27.5%81.0%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:0080.8%27.5%81.0%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:0080.8%27.5%81.0%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:0080.8%27.5%81.0%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:0080.8%27.5%81.6%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:0080.8%27.5%81.6%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:0080.8%27.5%81.6%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:0082.8%27.5%81.6%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:0082.8%27.5%81.6%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:0082.8%27.5%81.6%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:0082.8%27.5%81.6%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:0082.8%27.5%81.6%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:0082.8%27.5%82.7%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0082.8%27.5%82.7%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:0082.8%27.5%82.7%47.0%70.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:0083.9%27.5%82.7%47.0%70.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:0083.9%27.5%82.7%47.0%70.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:0083.9%27.5%82.7%47.0%70.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0083.9%27.5%82.7%47.0%70.0%
2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:0083.9%46.1%84.7%50.7%70.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:0083.9%46.1%84.7%50.7%70.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:0083.9%46.1%84.7%50.7%70.0%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0083.9%46.1%84.7%50.7%70.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:0084.0%46.1%84.7%50.7%70.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:0084.0%46.1%84.7%50.7%70.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 285%69.7°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single84%70.4°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend78%68.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON70%68.7°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%66.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES51%65.6°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble46%65.2°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗