KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

57%

53%

52%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.2¢Risks 38.20u

ICONNO 61.8¢Risks 61.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.80u · ICON −61.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	84.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	93.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	41.6%	—	—	94.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	89.6%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	78.3%	—	—	85.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	75.1%	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	51.4%	72.0%	3.5%	—	78.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	68.3%	75.1%	84.8%	—	80.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	80.0%	77.2%	92.4%	—	85.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	64.8%	42.1%	58.7%	—	78.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	55.8%	52.5%	71.4%	—	80.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	10.7%	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	45.6%	61.3%	77.9%	—	64.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	42.9%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	35.6%	65.3%	79.7%	—	71.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	38.8%	55.7%	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	33.0%	67.8%	90.6%	—	75.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	34.4%	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	22.7%	37.8%	86.6%	—	83.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	36.5%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	36.1%	20.6%	70.8%	—	73.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	34.6%	29.6%	0.0%	—	59.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	36.3%	19.1%	98.8%	—	52.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.1%	13.2%	84.8%	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	0.1%	20.8%	95.1%	66.9%	34.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	1.6%	55.1%	95.4%	—	47.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	5.7%	22.0%	91.1%	99.8%	55.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	1.1%	31.2%	88.2%	—	55.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	3.5%	61.4%	86.2%	98.7%	52.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	31.1%	68.9%	81.9%	—	41.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	11.0%	77.4%	66.8%	98.4%	36.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	46.7%	78.5%	85.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	83.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0784
National Blend	64%	84.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1260
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	57%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1806
WeatherNext 2	53%	81.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2237
IFS Ensemble	52%	81.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2256
ICON	4%	75.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.9139

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗