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KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
72%
HRES
57%
WN2
53%
EPS
52%
ICON
4%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 38.2¢Risks 38.20u
VS
ICONNO 61.8¢Risks 61.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.80u · ICON −61.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00AIFS Single: 86.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00AIFS Single: 86.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00AIFS Single: 72.0% · 2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00AIFS Single: 72.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 72.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00AIFS Single: 72.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 72.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.7% · 2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.6% · 2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00IFS HRES: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00IFS HRES: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00IFS HRES: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00IFS HRES: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00IFS HRES: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00IFS HRES: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00IFS HRES: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00IFS HRES: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:0010-15 04:0210-15 11:3910-18 07:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:0091.5%71.4%53.2%11.9%50.8%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:0091.5%71.4%53.2%11.9%50.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:0091.5%71.4%74.9%11.9%50.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:0091.5%71.4%74.9%11.9%50.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:0091.5%71.4%74.9%11.9%50.8%
2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:0087.8%71.4%74.9%90.3%39.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:0087.8%71.4%74.9%90.3%39.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:0087.8%71.4%74.9%90.3%39.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:0087.8%71.4%74.9%90.3%39.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:0087.8%71.4%61.7%90.3%39.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:0087.8%71.4%61.7%90.3%39.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:0087.8%73.0%61.7%90.3%39.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:0087.8%73.0%61.7%90.3%39.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:0086.9%72.8%61.7%90.3%39.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:0086.9%72.8%61.7%90.3%39.1%
2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:0072.0%52.5%48.6%57.5%4.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:0072.0%52.5%52.7%57.5%4.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:0072.0%52.5%52.7%57.5%4.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:0072.0%52.5%52.7%57.5%4.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:0072.0%52.5%52.7%57.5%4.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single72%83.8°F3.9°F2026-10-17 18:000.0784
National Blend64%84.0°F6.7°F2026-10-18 00:000.1260
NWS forecast59%82.0°F2.1°F2026-10-18 03:000.1665
IFS HRES57%82.2°F3.7°F2026-10-17 12:000.1806
WeatherNext 253%81.7°F2.9°F2026-10-17 18:000.2237
IFS Ensemble52%81.8°F4.7°F2026-10-17 00:000.2256
ICON4%75.5°F3.5°F2026-10-17 12:000.9139

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗