KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 21:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 23.8¢Risks 23.75u

ICONNO 76.2¢Risks 76.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +76.25u · ICON −76.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	7.6%	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	30.1%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	24.9%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	8.5%	20.4%	0.1%	—	26.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	16.1%	21.5%	33.0%	—	27.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	24.5%	21.6%	46.2%	—	32.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	11.1%	3.6%	8.4%	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	6.3%	5.3%	13.4%	—	20.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	0.1%	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.1%	7.0%	16.1%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	2.4%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	1.3%	7.3%	15.4%	—	10.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	1.5%	4.0%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.8%	6.8%	26.3%	—	10.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.8%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.2%	0.9%	17.0%	—	13.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.7%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.5%	0.1%	5.0%	—	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	46.5%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	8.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	19.9%	2.0%	0.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	18.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	8.9%	56.7%	0.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	5.4%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	3.5%	24.5%	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%	1.7%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.8%	0.3%	15.2%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	1.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	47%	89.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2218
National Blend	20%	85.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0412
NWS forecast	15%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.0237
IFS Ensemble	15%	84.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0219
AIFS Single	2%	80.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	1%	82.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0001
ICON	<1%	80.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗