KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 21:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 23.8¢Risks 23.75u

ICONNO 76.2¢Risks 76.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +76.25u · ICON −76.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:54+00:00	66.7%	57.6%	49.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00	66.7%	57.6%	49.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00	66.7%	57.6%	49.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00	66.7%	57.6%	49.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:27+00:00	66.7%	57.6%	49.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:18+00:00	66.7%	29.2%	45.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:25+00:00	66.7%	29.2%	45.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	66.7%	29.2%	45.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:59+00:00	64.7%	29.2%	45.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	64.6%	29.2%	45.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00	64.6%	27.6%	45.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:22+00:00	64.6%	27.6%	45.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:29+00:00	64.6%	27.6%	45.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:05+00:00	64.6%	27.6%	45.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:15+00:00	64.6%	27.6%	45.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	64.6%	27.6%	45.2%	19.7%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:36+00:00	45.0%	27.6%	45.2%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-11T20:28:43+00:00	45.0%	27.6%	45.2%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-11T21:13:56+00:00	45.0%	27.6%	45.2%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	45.0%	27.6%	45.2%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	45.0%	27.6%	45.2%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-11T23:29:39+00:00	45.0%	27.6%	36.6%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	45.0%	27.6%	36.6%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-12T01:00:17+00:00	45.0%	27.6%	36.6%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	47.9%	27.6%	36.6%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:33+00:00	47.9%	27.6%	36.6%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:41+00:00	47.9%	27.6%	36.6%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-12T04:02:10+00:00	47.9%	27.6%	36.6%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	47.9%	27.6%	36.6%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	47.9%	27.6%	43.6%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	47.9%	27.6%	43.6%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-12T07:02:37+00:00	47.9%	27.6%	43.6%	40.0%	36.9%
2026-10-12T07:49:14+00:00	44.0%	27.6%	43.6%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00	44.0%	27.6%	43.6%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	44.0%	27.6%	43.6%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	44.0%	27.6%	43.6%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	44.0%	27.6%	43.6%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:43+00:00	44.0%	27.6%	32.2%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:52+00:00	44.0%	16.5%	32.2%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	44.0%	16.5%	32.2%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:12+00:00	59.7%	16.5%	32.2%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	59.7%	16.9%	32.3%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T15:27:51+00:00	59.7%	16.9%	32.3%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	59.7%	15.0%	32.3%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	59.7%	15.0%	33.1%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	59.7%	15.0%	33.1%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:23+00:00	59.7%	15.0%	33.1%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	59.7%	15.0%	33.1%	39.8%	39.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	75.7%	15.0%	33.1%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	75.7%	15.0%	33.1%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:53+00:00	75.7%	15.0%	33.1%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	75.7%	15.0%	33.1%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	75.7%	15.0%	43.1%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	75.7%	15.0%	43.1%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	75.7%	15.0%	43.1%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	75.7%	15.0%	43.1%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:52+00:00	70.1%	15.0%	43.1%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	70.1%	15.0%	43.1%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	70.1%	15.0%	43.1%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-13T04:16:38+00:00	70.1%	15.0%	43.1%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	70.1%	15.0%	35.5%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	70.1%	15.0%	35.5%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	70.1%	15.0%	35.5%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:21+00:00	70.1%	15.0%	35.5%	57.9%	49.4%
2026-10-13T08:04:29+00:00	65.8%	15.0%	35.5%	33.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	65.8%	15.0%	35.5%	33.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	65.8%	15.0%	35.5%	33.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	65.8%	15.0%	35.5%	33.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:29+00:00	65.8%	28.5%	23.9%	33.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	65.8%	28.5%	23.9%	33.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00	65.8%	28.5%	23.9%	33.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	65.8%	28.5%	23.9%	33.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	68.6%	28.5%	24.0%	33.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	24.0%	33.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:59+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	24.0%	33.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	24.0%	33.5%	27.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	19.1%	33.5%	27.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	19.1%	33.5%	27.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	19.1%	33.5%	27.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	19.1%	33.5%	21.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	19.1%	33.5%	21.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	19.1%	33.5%	21.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	19.1%	33.5%	21.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	19.1%	18.7%	21.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	21.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	21.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	68.6%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	21.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	54.8%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	21.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	54.8%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	21.2%
2026-10-14T03:00:19+00:00	54.8%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	21.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	54.8%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	21.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:48+00:00	54.8%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	21.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	54.8%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	21.2%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	54.8%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	21.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	54.8%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	21.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	8.9%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	7.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	8.9%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	7.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00	8.9%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	7.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	8.9%	24.8%	21.2%	18.4%	7.6%
2026-10-14T10:35:07+00:00	8.9%	24.8%	21.2%	0.3%	7.6%
2026-10-14T11:21:06+00:00	8.9%	13.5%	3.8%	0.3%	7.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	8.9%	13.5%	3.8%	0.3%	7.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	8.9%	13.5%	3.8%	0.3%	7.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	18.1%	13.5%	3.8%	0.3%	7.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	18.1%	13.8%	3.8%	0.3%	8.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	18.1%	11.8%	3.8%	0.3%	8.0%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	18.1%	11.8%	3.8%	0.3%	8.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	18.1%	11.8%	3.8%	0.3%	8.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	18.1%	11.8%	1.9%	0.3%	8.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	18.1%	11.8%	1.9%	0.3%	8.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	18.1%	11.8%	1.9%	0.3%	8.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	26.4%	11.8%	1.9%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	26.4%	11.8%	1.9%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	26.4%	11.8%	1.9%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	26.4%	11.8%	1.9%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	26.4%	11.8%	1.9%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	26.4%	12.0%	1.9%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	26.4%	12.0%	1.9%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	26.4%	12.0%	1.9%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	35.6%	12.0%	1.9%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	35.6%	12.0%	1.9%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	35.6%	12.0%	1.9%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00	35.6%	12.0%	1.9%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	35.6%	12.0%	1.9%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	35.6%	12.0%	7.0%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	35.6%	12.0%	7.0%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	35.6%	12.0%	7.0%	0.3%	5.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00	24.2%	12.0%	7.0%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	24.2%	12.0%	7.0%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	24.2%	12.0%	7.0%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	24.2%	12.0%	7.0%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00	24.2%	12.0%	1.9%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00	24.2%	12.0%	1.9%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	24.2%	17.9%	1.9%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	24.2%	17.9%	1.9%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	22.7%	18.1%	1.9%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	22.7%	18.1%	1.9%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:47+00:00	22.7%	16.9%	1.9%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	22.7%	16.9%	1.9%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	22.7%	16.9%	1.5%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	22.7%	16.9%	1.5%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	22.7%	16.9%	1.5%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	22.7%	16.9%	1.5%	31.1%	1.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	22.7%	16.9%	1.5%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	22.7%	16.9%	1.5%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	22.7%	16.9%	1.5%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	22.7%	16.9%	1.5%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	22.7%	17.3%	0.4%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	22.7%	17.3%	0.4%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	22.7%	17.3%	0.4%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	29.6%	17.3%	0.4%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	29.6%	17.3%	0.4%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	29.6%	17.3%	0.4%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	29.6%	17.3%	0.4%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T04:25:18+00:00	29.6%	17.3%	0.4%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	29.6%	17.3%	1.1%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	29.6%	17.3%	1.1%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	29.6%	17.3%	1.1%	9.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	15.7%	17.3%	1.1%	9.0%	0.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	15.7%	17.3%	1.1%	9.0%	0.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	15.7%	17.3%	1.1%	9.0%	0.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	15.7%	17.3%	1.1%	9.0%	0.3%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	15.7%	17.3%	1.1%	9.0%	0.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	15.7%	13.8%	0.5%	9.0%	0.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	15.7%	13.8%	0.5%	9.0%	0.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	15.7%	13.8%	0.5%	9.0%	0.3%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	3.3%	13.8%	0.5%	47.1%	0.3%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	3.3%	13.9%	0.5%	47.1%	0.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	3.3%	14.9%	0.5%	47.1%	0.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	3.3%	14.8%	0.5%	47.1%	0.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	3.3%	14.8%	0.5%	47.1%	0.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	3.3%	14.8%	1.1%	47.1%	0.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	3.3%	14.8%	1.1%	47.1%	0.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	3.3%	14.8%	1.1%	47.1%	0.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	1.7%	14.8%	1.1%	47.1%	0.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	1.7%	14.8%	1.1%	47.1%	0.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	1.7%	14.8%	1.1%	47.1%	0.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	1.7%	14.8%	1.1%	47.1%	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	47%	89.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2218
National Blend	20%	85.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0412
NWS forecast	15%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.0237
IFS Ensemble	15%	84.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0219
AIFS Single	2%	80.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	1%	82.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0001
ICON	<1%	80.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗