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KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 96°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
14%
ICON
4%
HRES
3%
EPS
2%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 7.5¢Risks 3.75u
VS
WN2NO 92.5¢Risks 46.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.25u · WN2 −46.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.3% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.5% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0010-03 12:0010-11 06:0010-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:002.6%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:002.8%————39.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0035.9%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0022.4%————27.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0011.5%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:008.1%————18.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0017.9%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0023.2%————31.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0012.6%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0014.9%————15.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0030.6%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0012.6%————22.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0031.6%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.1%————16.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:003.1%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.6%————19.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:002.0%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.9%————13.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.3%————17.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0023.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:008.1%————28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0019.7%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0022.4%—1.0%——29.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0025.3%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0014.6%—17.2%——18.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0016.8%—8.2%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0012.3%—6.7%——11.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0015.5%—2.9%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:009.6%—4.5%——8.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:008.6%—2.0%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:002.9%0.8%3.0%0.0%—4.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.1%—1.4%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:002.5%1.8%2.9%6.2%—4.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:005.4%—0.9%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0011.8%3.3%2.7%10.7%—5.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:008.2%—1.6%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:005.7%0.8%0.1%0.5%—2.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:006.2%—0.1%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:005.8%0.3%0.2%0.9%—1.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:002.2%0.0%0.6%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.3%1.1%—0.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.3%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.2%0.8%—0.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.1%——0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.2%1.8%—0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%—0.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%3.3%—0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.2%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single14%90.1°F5.0°F2026-10-13 18:000.0190
ICON4%84.8°F5.9°F2026-10-13 12:000.0012
NWS forecast3%86.0°F5.2°F2026-10-13 14:000.0011
IFS HRES3%84.3°F5.8°F2026-10-13 12:000.0007
IFS Ensemble2%86.5°F4.4°F2026-10-13 00:000.0004
National Blend2%86.0°F4.4°F2026-10-13 06:000.0003
WeatherNext 21%86.2°F4.1°F2026-10-13 12:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE96
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix runs hot-for-here: 96°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗