KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 96°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 7.5¢Risks 3.75u

WN2NO 92.5¢Risks 46.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.25u · WN2 −46.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:54+00:00	25.9%	13.9%	12.5%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00	25.9%	13.9%	12.5%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00	25.9%	13.9%	12.5%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00	25.9%	13.9%	12.5%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:27+00:00	25.9%	13.9%	12.5%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:18+00:00	25.9%	2.4%	9.0%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:25+00:00	25.9%	2.4%	9.0%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	25.9%	2.4%	9.0%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:59+00:00	24.2%	2.4%	9.0%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	24.3%	2.4%	9.1%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00	24.3%	2.1%	9.1%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:22+00:00	24.3%	2.1%	9.1%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:29+00:00	24.3%	2.1%	9.1%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:05+00:00	24.3%	2.1%	9.1%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:15+00:00	24.3%	2.1%	9.1%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	24.3%	2.1%	9.1%	3.6%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:36+00:00	11.5%	2.1%	9.1%	11.5%	17.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:43+00:00	11.5%	2.1%	9.1%	11.5%	17.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:56+00:00	11.5%	2.1%	9.1%	11.5%	17.2%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	11.5%	2.1%	9.1%	11.5%	17.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	11.5%	2.1%	9.1%	11.5%	17.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:39+00:00	11.5%	2.1%	6.0%	11.5%	17.3%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	11.5%	2.1%	6.0%	11.5%	17.3%
2026-10-12T01:00:17+00:00	11.5%	2.1%	6.0%	11.5%	17.3%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	13.0%	2.1%	6.0%	11.5%	17.3%
2026-10-12T02:30:33+00:00	13.0%	2.1%	6.0%	11.5%	17.3%
2026-10-12T03:15:41+00:00	13.0%	2.1%	6.0%	11.5%	17.3%
2026-10-12T04:02:10+00:00	13.0%	2.1%	6.0%	11.5%	17.3%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	13.0%	2.1%	6.0%	11.5%	17.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:43+00:00	10.0%	2.1%	3.8%	12.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:12+00:00	18.8%	1.3%	3.8%	12.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	18.8%	1.4%	3.8%	12.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T15:27:51+00:00	18.8%	1.4%	3.8%	12.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	18.8%	1.2%	3.8%	12.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	18.8%	1.2%	4.0%	12.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	18.8%	1.2%	4.0%	12.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:23+00:00	18.8%	1.2%	4.0%	12.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	18.8%	1.2%	4.0%	12.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	4.0%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	4.0%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:53+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	4.0%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	4.0%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	6.8%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	6.8%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	6.8%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	33.2%	1.2%	6.8%	23.7%	19.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:52+00:00	27.3%	1.2%	6.8%	23.7%	19.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	27.3%	1.2%	6.8%	23.7%	19.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	27.3%	1.2%	6.8%	23.7%	19.3%
2026-10-13T04:16:38+00:00	27.3%	1.2%	6.8%	23.7%	19.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	27.3%	1.2%	4.6%	23.7%	19.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	27.3%	1.2%	4.6%	23.7%	19.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	27.3%	1.2%	4.6%	23.7%	19.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:21+00:00	27.3%	1.2%	4.6%	23.7%	19.3%
2026-10-13T08:04:29+00:00	20.8%	1.2%	4.6%	7.0%	5.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	20.8%	1.2%	4.6%	7.0%	5.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	20.8%	1.2%	4.6%	7.0%	5.3%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	20.8%	1.2%	4.6%	7.0%	5.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	23.4%	2.7%	1.5%	7.0%	5.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:59+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	1.5%	7.0%	5.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	1.5%	7.3%	5.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	1.0%	7.3%	5.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	1.0%	7.3%	5.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	1.0%	7.3%	5.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	1.0%	7.3%	3.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	1.0%	7.3%	3.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	1.0%	7.3%	3.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	1.0%	7.3%	3.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	1.0%	2.8%	3.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	1.2%	2.6%	3.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	1.2%	2.6%	3.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	23.4%	2.0%	1.2%	2.6%	3.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	13.8%	2.0%	1.2%	2.6%	3.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	13.8%	2.0%	1.2%	2.6%	3.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	14%	90.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0190
ICON	4%	84.8°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0012
NWS forecast	3%	86.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.0011
IFS HRES	3%	84.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0007
IFS Ensemble	2%	86.5°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0004
National Blend	2%	86.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	1%	86.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE96
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix runs hot-for-here: 96°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗