KPHX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

72%

52%

42%

13%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.8¢Risks 48.75u

ICONNO 51.2¢Risks 51.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +51.25u · ICON −51.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	—	—	—	83.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	78.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	22.8%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	24.6%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	0.3%	61.3%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	68.9%	65.7%	19.9%	—	77.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	55.8%	37.8%	62.9%	—	71.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	50.0%	70.4%	45.4%	—	73.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	35.9%	67.7%	48.4%	—	57.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	36.9%	54.2%	55.8%	—	63.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	0.0%	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	0.7%	24.8%	69.3%	—	60.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	4.1%	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	2.3%	38.2%	73.4%	—	57.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	3.6%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	6.5%	19.7%	62.4%	—	51.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	1.7%	25.7%	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	9.0%	18.3%	64.1%	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	2.8%	19.0%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	1.0%	23.8%	54.4%	0.0%	53.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	5.1%	17.5%	0.3%	—	54.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	17.5%	24.2%	58.1%	40.8%	61.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	4.8%	19.9%	44.0%	—	47.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	15.1%	34.2%	38.9%	—	47.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	1.9%	26.9%	36.1%	—	48.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	18.2%	14.9%	25.1%	84.3%	42.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	13.9%	27.6%	36.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	24.5%	23.4%	42.8%	64.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	90.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	88.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	87.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	87.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	86.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	85.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	13%	82.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 87°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗