KPHX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

72%

52%

42%

13%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.8¢Risks 48.75u

ICONNO 51.2¢Risks 51.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +51.25u · ICON −51.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:43+00:00	78.4%	82.7%	77.9%	78.9%	11.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:52+00:00	78.4%	69.1%	77.9%	78.9%	11.8%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	78.4%	69.1%	77.9%	78.9%	11.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:12+00:00	83.7%	69.1%	77.9%	78.9%	11.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	83.6%	69.1%	77.8%	78.9%	11.9%
2026-10-12T15:27:51+00:00	83.6%	69.1%	77.8%	78.9%	11.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	83.6%	66.5%	77.8%	78.9%	11.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	83.6%	66.5%	78.4%	78.9%	11.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	83.6%	66.5%	78.4%	78.9%	11.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:23+00:00	83.6%	66.5%	78.4%	78.9%	11.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	83.6%	66.5%	78.4%	78.9%	11.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	89.4%	66.5%	78.4%	93.9%	77.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	89.4%	66.5%	78.4%	93.9%	77.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:53+00:00	89.4%	66.5%	78.4%	93.9%	77.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	89.4%	66.5%	78.4%	93.9%	77.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	89.4%	66.5%	85.2%	93.9%	77.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	89.4%	66.5%	85.2%	93.9%	77.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	89.4%	66.5%	85.2%	93.9%	77.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	89.4%	66.5%	85.2%	93.9%	76.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:52+00:00	88.0%	66.5%	85.2%	93.9%	76.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	88.0%	66.5%	85.2%	93.9%	76.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	88.0%	66.5%	85.2%	93.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00	80.7%	67.9%	44.2%	2.4%	56.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	80.7%	67.9%	44.2%	2.4%	56.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	80.7%	67.9%	40.4%	2.4%	56.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	80.7%	67.9%	40.4%	2.4%	56.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	80.7%	67.9%	40.4%	2.4%	56.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00	69.1%	67.9%	40.4%	48.4%	2.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	69.1%	67.9%	40.4%	48.4%	2.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	69.1%	67.9%	40.4%	48.4%	2.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	69.1%	67.9%	40.4%	48.4%	2.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00	69.1%	67.9%	42.5%	48.4%	2.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00	69.1%	67.9%	42.5%	48.4%	2.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	69.1%	70.9%	42.5%	48.4%	2.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	69.1%	70.9%	42.5%	48.4%	2.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	84.2%	70.9%	42.5%	48.4%	2.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	84.2%	70.9%	42.5%	48.4%	2.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:47+00:00	84.2%	69.4%	42.5%	48.4%	2.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	84.2%	69.4%	42.5%	48.4%	2.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	84.2%	69.4%	40.4%	48.4%	2.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	84.2%	69.4%	40.4%	48.4%	2.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	84.2%	69.4%	40.4%	48.4%	2.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	84.2%	69.4%	40.4%	48.4%	2.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	62.8%	69.4%	40.4%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	62.8%	69.4%	40.4%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	62.8%	69.4%	40.4%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	62.8%	69.4%	40.4%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	62.8%	69.4%	30.5%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	62.8%	69.4%	30.5%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	62.8%	69.4%	30.5%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	73.6%	69.4%	30.5%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	73.6%	69.4%	30.5%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	73.6%	69.4%	30.5%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	73.6%	69.4%	30.5%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T04:25:18+00:00	73.6%	69.4%	30.5%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	73.6%	69.4%	33.4%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	73.6%	69.4%	33.4%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	73.6%	69.4%	33.4%	57.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	71.3%	69.4%	33.4%	57.1%	8.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	71.3%	69.4%	33.4%	57.1%	8.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	71.3%	69.4%	33.4%	57.1%	8.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	71.3%	69.4%	33.4%	57.1%	8.3%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	71.3%	69.4%	33.4%	57.1%	8.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	71.3%	58.4%	17.9%	57.1%	8.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	71.3%	58.4%	17.9%	57.1%	8.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	71.3%	58.4%	17.9%	57.1%	8.3%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	70.4%	58.4%	17.9%	70.4%	8.3%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	70.4%	58.3%	17.9%	70.4%	8.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:16+00:00	73.7%	56.1%	47.3%	79.8%	9.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	73.7%	52.1%	47.3%	79.8%	9.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	73.7%	52.1%	47.3%	79.8%	9.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	73.7%	52.1%	35.3%	79.8%	9.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	73.7%	52.1%	35.3%	79.8%	9.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	73.7%	52.1%	35.3%	79.8%	9.8%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	80.6%	52.1%	35.3%	72.3%	13.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	80.6%	52.1%	35.3%	72.3%	13.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00	80.6%	52.1%	35.3%	72.3%	13.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	80.6%	52.1%	35.3%	72.3%	13.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	80.6%	52.1%	35.3%	72.3%	13.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	80.6%	52.1%	41.8%	72.3%	13.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	80.6%	52.1%	41.8%	72.3%	13.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	80.6%	52.1%	41.8%	72.3%	13.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:40+00:00	84.5%	52.1%	41.8%	72.3%	13.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	84.5%	52.1%	41.8%	72.3%	13.0%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	84.5%	52.1%	41.8%	72.3%	13.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	84.5%	52.1%	41.8%	72.3%	13.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	90.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	88.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	87.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	87.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	86.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	85.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	13%	82.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 87°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗