KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

84%

81%

81%

68%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 82.3¢Risks 82.35u

ICONNO 17.6¢Risks 17.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +17.65u · ICON −17.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	82.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	80.2%	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	48.0%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	0.4%	67.0%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	68.9%	57.7%	18.9%	—	71.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	50.7%	38.5%	28.5%	—	65.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	51.5%	59.8%	35.1%	—	73.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	14.5%	60.3%	75.2%	—	69.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	17.8%	41.7%	66.2%	—	70.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	3.1%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	51.7%	52.6%	79.8%	—	55.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	42.0%	59.8%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	55.5%	66.1%	83.4%	—	67.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	57.5%	65.7%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	60.6%	66.1%	85.3%	—	76.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	56.0%	62.8%	—	—	81.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	65.1%	67.9%	89.2%	0.0%	84.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	78.0%	73.8%	—	—	85.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	76.2%	74.5%	83.1%	—	83.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	57.8%	76.9%	2.7%	—	88.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	52.3%	83.2%	87.9%	0.0%	89.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	72.7%	84.0%	89.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	80.1%	87.0%	90.5%	97.5%	93.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	82.6%	89.1%	97.4%	—	93.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	80.9%	93.5%	98.0%	98.6%	93.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	91.9%	96.3%	98.2%	—	92.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	96.3%	91.6%	97.3%	92.2%	97.9%	97.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	95.6%	98.5%	—	98.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	96.9%	—	99.4%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	93.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	89.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	88.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	89.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	87.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	87.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗