KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

84%

81%

81%

68%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 82.3¢Risks 82.35u

ICONNO 17.6¢Risks 17.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +17.65u · ICON −17.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:29+00:00	86.9%	92.6%	61.8%	78.5%	12.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	86.9%	92.6%	61.8%	78.5%	12.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	86.9%	92.6%	61.8%	78.5%	12.5%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	86.9%	92.6%	61.8%	78.5%	12.5%
2026-10-14T03:00:19+00:00	60.5%	90.1%	61.8%	75.6%	76.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	60.5%	90.1%	61.8%	75.6%	76.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:48+00:00	60.5%	90.1%	61.8%	75.6%	76.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	60.5%	90.1%	61.8%	75.6%	76.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	60.5%	90.1%	61.8%	75.6%	76.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	60.5%	90.1%	61.8%	75.6%	76.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	30.5%	90.1%	61.8%	75.6%	70.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	30.5%	90.1%	61.8%	75.6%	70.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00	30.5%	90.1%	61.8%	75.6%	70.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	30.5%	90.1%	61.8%	75.6%	70.0%
2026-10-14T10:35:07+00:00	30.5%	90.1%	61.8%	35.7%	70.0%
2026-10-14T11:21:06+00:00	30.5%	77.1%	45.7%	35.7%	70.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	30.5%	77.1%	45.7%	35.7%	70.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	30.5%	77.1%	45.7%	35.7%	70.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	73.3%	77.1%	45.7%	35.7%	70.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	73.6%	77.1%	45.7%	35.8%	70.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00	86.7%	74.5%	54.3%	44.6%	70.5%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	86.7%	74.5%	54.3%	44.6%	70.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	86.7%	74.5%	51.7%	44.6%	70.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	86.7%	74.5%	51.7%	44.6%	70.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	86.7%	74.5%	51.7%	44.6%	70.5%
2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00	58.0%	74.5%	51.7%	71.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	58.0%	74.5%	51.7%	71.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	58.0%	74.5%	51.7%	71.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	58.0%	74.5%	51.7%	71.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00	58.0%	74.5%	50.0%	71.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00	58.0%	74.5%	50.0%	71.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	58.0%	84.1%	50.0%	71.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	58.0%	84.1%	50.0%	71.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	89.4%	84.1%	50.0%	71.6%	33.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	89.4%	84.1%	50.0%	71.6%	33.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:47+00:00	89.4%	83.5%	50.0%	71.6%	33.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	89.4%	83.5%	50.0%	71.6%	33.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	89.4%	83.5%	50.0%	71.6%	33.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	89.4%	83.5%	50.0%	71.6%	33.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	89.4%	83.5%	50.0%	71.6%	33.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	89.4%	83.5%	50.0%	71.6%	33.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	88.2%	83.5%	50.0%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	88.2%	83.5%	50.0%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	88.2%	83.5%	50.0%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	88.2%	83.5%	50.0%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	88.2%	83.5%	55.8%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	88.3%	83.5%	55.8%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	88.3%	83.5%	55.8%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	89.1%	83.5%	55.8%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	89.1%	83.5%	55.8%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	89.1%	83.5%	55.8%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	89.1%	83.5%	55.8%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-16T04:25:18+00:00	89.1%	83.5%	55.8%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	89.1%	83.5%	48.1%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	89.1%	83.5%	48.1%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	89.1%	83.5%	48.1%	77.2%	38.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	91.5%	83.5%	48.1%	77.2%	65.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	91.5%	83.5%	48.1%	77.2%	65.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	91.5%	83.5%	48.1%	77.2%	65.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	91.5%	83.5%	48.1%	77.2%	65.2%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	91.5%	83.5%	48.1%	77.2%	65.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	91.5%	71.8%	46.8%	77.2%	65.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	91.5%	71.8%	46.8%	77.2%	65.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	91.5%	71.8%	46.8%	77.2%	65.2%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	90.8%	71.8%	46.8%	80.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	90.9%	71.7%	46.8%	80.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	90.9%	74.0%	46.8%	80.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	90.9%	74.0%	46.8%	80.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	90.9%	74.0%	46.8%	80.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	90.9%	74.0%	60.6%	80.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	90.9%	74.0%	60.6%	80.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	90.9%	74.0%	60.6%	80.0%	65.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	60.6%	80.0%	68.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	60.6%	80.0%	68.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	60.6%	80.0%	68.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	60.6%	80.0%	68.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	60.6%	74.5%	68.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	73.2%	74.5%	68.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	73.2%	74.5%	68.2%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	91.2%	74.0%	73.2%	74.5%	68.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	93.1%	74.0%	73.2%	74.5%	68.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	93.1%	74.0%	73.2%	74.5%	68.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	93.1%	74.0%	73.2%	74.5%	68.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	93.1%	74.0%	73.2%	74.5%	68.2%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	93.1%	74.0%	73.2%	74.5%	68.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	93.1%	74.0%	78.2%	74.5%	68.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	93.1%	74.0%	78.2%	74.5%	68.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	93.1%	74.0%	78.2%	74.5%	68.2%
2026-10-17T07:45:26+00:00	96.9%	74.0%	78.2%	80.9%	67.5%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	96.9%	74.0%	78.2%	80.9%	67.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	96.9%	74.0%	78.2%	80.9%	67.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	96.9%	74.0%	78.2%	80.9%	67.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	96.9%	74.0%	78.2%	80.9%	67.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	96.9%	84.3%	81.3%	80.9%	67.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	96.9%	84.3%	81.3%	80.9%	67.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	96.9%	84.3%	81.3%	80.9%	67.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	97.2%	84.3%	81.3%	80.9%	67.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	97.2%	83.9%	81.3%	80.9%	67.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	93.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	89.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	88.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	89.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	87.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	87.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗