KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

58%

44%

27%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.60u

ICONNO 61.4¢Risks 61.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.40u · ICON −61.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	40.1%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	11.7%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	0.0%	22.8%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	23.0%	14.9%	1.7%	—	25.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	10.3%	5.7%	3.2%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	9.7%	13.8%	4.2%	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.7%	12.7%	23.6%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	0.9%	4.7%	14.8%	—	17.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	0.0%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	6.8%	7.0%	24.1%	—	8.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	3.8%	9.2%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	7.0%	11.5%	25.9%	—	12.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	7.0%	10.4%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	7.5%	9.8%	25.5%	—	16.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	5.4%	7.6%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	7.8%	9.0%	28.5%	0.0%	21.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	13.8%	11.1%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	11.4%	10.4%	16.9%	—	17.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	3.8%	10.7%	0.0%	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	2.4%	14.0%	19.1%	0.0%	20.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.4%	6.6%	13.2%	19.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	8.9%	14.4%	19.1%	41.3%	25.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	9.2%	15.0%	37.3%	—	22.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	7.0%	20.0%	38.1%	43.3%	20.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	14.7%	25.3%	36.3%	—	15.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	12.2%	26.8%	13.0%	30.5%	26.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	17.2%	31.1%	—	28.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	94.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	93.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	91.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	90.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	87.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 93°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗