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KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
71%
WN2
58%
HRES
44%
EPS
27%
ICON
6%
Consensus
47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.60u
VS
ICONNO 61.4¢Risks 61.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.40u · ICON −61.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:57+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:57+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:57+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 07:0610-20 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:57+00:0066.7%26.7%37.9%43.6%5.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0066.7%26.7%37.9%43.6%5.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:0066.7%26.7%58.2%43.6%5.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:0066.7%26.7%58.2%43.6%5.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0066.7%26.7%58.2%43.6%5.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:0071.0%26.7%58.2%43.6%6.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:0071.0%26.7%58.2%43.6%6.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:0071.0%26.7%58.2%43.6%6.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:0071.0%26.7%58.2%43.6%6.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single71%94.2°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast59%93.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend59%93.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 258%93.1°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
IFS HRES44%91.9°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble27%90.3°F3.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON6%87.1°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 93°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗