KPHX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

70%

62%

52%

36%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.2¢Risks 55.25u

ICONNO 44.8¢Risks 44.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.75u · ICON −44.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	72.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	72.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	86.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	42.9%	—	—	72.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	3.1%	63.9%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	76.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	60.4%	73.1%	15.3%	—	71.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	47.8%	95.9%	37.1%	—	74.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	11.4%	80.0%	71.1%	—	64.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	58.7%	95.3%	35.2%	—	64.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	68.5%	86.2%	68.5%	—	52.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	19.0%	94.1%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	65.4%	74.5%	42.2%	24.8%	59.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	66.6%	—	—	58.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	81.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	80.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	79.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	77.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	74.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗