KPHX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

70%

62%

52%

36%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.2¢Risks 55.25u

ICONNO 44.8¢Risks 44.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.75u · ICON −44.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	69.9%	60.3%	80.0%	37.8%	26.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	69.9%	60.3%	80.0%	37.8%	26.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	69.9%	60.3%	80.0%	37.8%	26.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	76.7%	60.3%	80.0%	37.8%	26.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	76.7%	60.3%	80.0%	37.8%	26.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:25+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	80.0%	37.8%	26.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	80.0%	37.8%	26.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	78.3%	37.8%	26.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	78.3%	37.8%	26.3%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	78.3%	37.8%	26.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	78.3%	37.8%	26.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	78.3%	85.8%	73.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	78.3%	85.8%	73.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	78.3%	85.8%	73.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	78.3%	85.8%	73.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	76.5%	85.8%	73.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	76.5%	85.8%	73.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	76.5%	85.8%	73.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	76.7%	60.5%	76.5%	85.8%	73.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	77.3%	60.5%	76.5%	85.8%	73.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	77.3%	60.5%	76.5%	85.8%	73.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	77.3%	60.5%	76.5%	85.8%	73.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:18+00:00	85.0%	56.4%	79.8%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	85.0%	51.9%	79.8%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	85.0%	51.9%	79.8%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	85.0%	51.9%	68.1%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	85.0%	51.9%	68.1%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	85.0%	51.9%	68.1%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	72.3%	51.9%	68.1%	62.5%	35.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	72.3%	51.9%	68.1%	62.5%	35.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00	72.3%	51.9%	68.1%	62.5%	35.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	72.3%	51.9%	68.1%	62.5%	35.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	72.3%	51.9%	68.1%	62.5%	35.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	72.3%	51.9%	70.4%	62.5%	35.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	72.3%	51.9%	70.4%	62.5%	35.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	72.3%	51.9%	70.4%	62.5%	35.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	74.7%	51.9%	70.4%	62.5%	35.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	74.7%	51.9%	70.4%	62.5%	35.8%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	74.7%	51.9%	70.4%	62.5%	35.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	74.7%	51.9%	70.4%	62.5%	35.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	81.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	80.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	79.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	77.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	74.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗