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KPHX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
14%
ICON
7%
AIFS
4%
EPS
2%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 7.8¢Risks 3.92u
VS
WN2NO 92.2¢Risks 46.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.08u · WN2 −46.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-10 12:0010-15 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:003.4%————19.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:008.9%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:009.1%————24.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0022.8%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.0%————17.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:003.9%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.6%————11.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:007.7%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:001.9%————6.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:003.1%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.2%————7.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0013.7%—————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:004.2%————6.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:009.8%—————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:003.4%————10.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:008.7%—————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.4%————9.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:004.6%—2.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:001.9%————8.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:001.8%————3.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:002.5%—2.0%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:003.4%—0.3%——11.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:003.1%—————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.9%————7.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:002.7%—12.4%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:001.9%—9.0%——9.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:002.0%—7.6%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:002.3%0.0%15.1%——10.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:002.2%—24.5%———
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.0%0.2%6.7%0.1%—9.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.6%—2.1%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.8%1.7%35.0%1.3%—6.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.6%—6.9%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.3%3.5%6.3%7.0%—3.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.2%—12.4%———
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.6%0.9%2.5%0.3%0.2%2.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.4%—1.5%——0.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES14%85.5°F6.6°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
ICON7%83.4°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast5%84.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
AIFS Single4%84.0°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend3%84.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%80.7°F5.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%82.1°F4.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261025-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 18 · 11:03 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix runs hot-for-here: 93°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗