KPHX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 7.8¢Risks 3.92u

WN2NO 92.2¢Risks 46.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.08u · WN2 −46.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:03:04+00:00	8.7%	1.8%	3.9%	12.6%	1.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	8.7%	1.8%	3.9%	12.6%	1.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	8.7%	1.8%	3.9%	12.6%	1.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	8.7%	1.8%	3.9%	12.6%	1.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	9.6%	1.8%	3.9%	12.6%	1.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:18+00:00	9.6%	1.8%	3.9%	12.6%	1.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	9.6%	1.3%	3.9%	12.6%	1.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	9.6%	1.3%	3.9%	12.6%	1.5%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	5.7%	1.3%	2.2%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	5.7%	1.3%	2.2%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00	5.7%	1.3%	2.2%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	5.7%	1.3%	2.2%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	5.7%	1.3%	2.2%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	5.7%	1.3%	3.0%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	5.7%	1.3%	3.0%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	5.7%	1.3%	3.0%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	4.3%	1.3%	3.0%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	4.3%	1.3%	3.0%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	4.3%	1.3%	3.0%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	4.3%	1.3%	3.0%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:44+00:00	4.3%	1.3%	3.0%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	4.3%	1.3%	3.2%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	4.3%	1.3%	3.2%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	4.3%	1.3%	3.2%	24.8%	12.3%
2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:00	4.8%	1.3%	3.2%	14.4%	13.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	4.8%	1.3%	3.2%	14.4%	13.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	4.8%	1.3%	3.2%	14.4%	13.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	4.8%	1.3%	3.2%	14.4%	13.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	4.8%	1.3%	3.2%	14.4%	13.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	4.8%	1.8%	1.8%	14.4%	13.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	4.8%	1.8%	1.8%	14.4%	13.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	4.8%	1.8%	1.8%	14.4%	13.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	4.1%	1.8%	1.8%	14.4%	13.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	4.1%	1.8%	1.8%	14.4%	13.1%
2026-10-19T15:14:02+00:00	4.1%	1.7%	1.8%	14.4%	13.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	4.1%	1.7%	1.8%	14.4%	13.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	4.1%	1.7%	1.8%	14.4%	13.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	4.1%	1.7%	3.6%	14.4%	13.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	4.1%	1.7%	3.6%	14.4%	13.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	4.1%	1.7%	3.6%	14.4%	13.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	3.6%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	3.6%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	3.6%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	3.6%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:19+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	3.6%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T04:06:02+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	4.3%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	6.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	4.3%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	6.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	4.3%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	6.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	4.3%	1.7%	1.3%	14.4%	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	14%	85.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	7%	83.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	84.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	80.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	82.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261025-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 18 · 11:03 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix runs hot-for-here: 93°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗