KPIT / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Sep 08 · 02:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

87%

85%

80%

60%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.6¢Risks 75.60u

ICONNO 24.4¢Risks 24.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.40u · ICON −24.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	74.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	—	—	—	72.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	89.6%	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	39.7%	—	—	44.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	50.7%	28.2%	—	—	56.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	3.3%	13.7%	26.3%	—	75.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	36.4%	31.7%	27.2%	—	62.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	29.6%	54.6%	50.0%	—	55.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	74.5%	80.0%	59.5%	—	62.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	14.4%	76.3%	—	—	55.7%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	30.0%	40.1%	66.2%	—	70.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	21.4%	44.0%	—	—	75.4%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	55.2%	87.8%	44.8%	—	67.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	49.1%	89.2%	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	50.0%	85.6%	40.9%	—	62.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	75.4%	86.3%	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	75.3%	89.3%	54.9%	—	61.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	58.9%	59.9%	—	—	64.7%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	67.9%	61.2%	52.1%	—	65.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	51.1%	86.8%	—	—	70.2%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	67.9%	56.5%	87.5%	59.7%	—	67.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	70.4%	94.0%	0.1%	—	66.4%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	60.4%	98.7%	86.0%	66.9%	84.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	82.5%	89.8%	80.1%	—	86.8%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	80.1%	97.9%	91.5%	84.1%	87.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	86.5%	98.7%	91.8%	—	90.8%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	85.1%	98.6%	92.1%	72.7%	96.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	89.6%	99.2%	88.2%	—	97.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	94.5%	99.5%	92.7%	94.9%	98.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	94.8%	99.8%	95.9%	—	98.6%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	95.2%	99.8%	95.9%	91.1%	98.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	97.2%	99.9%	97.7%	—	98.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	79%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	60%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260911-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗