KPIT / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Sep 08 · 02:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

87%

85%

80%

60%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.6¢Risks 75.60u

ICONNO 24.4¢Risks 24.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.40u · ICON −24.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00	79.9%	81.4%	80.2%	62.2%	65.2%
2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00	79.9%	81.4%	80.2%	62.2%	65.2%
2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00	79.9%	81.4%	80.2%	62.2%	65.2%
2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00	79.9%	81.4%	80.2%	62.2%	65.2%
2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00	79.9%	81.4%	80.2%	62.2%	65.2%
2026-09-07T15:36:54+00:00	79.9%	80.4%	80.2%	62.2%	65.2%
2026-09-07T16:22:02+00:00	79.9%	80.4%	80.2%	62.2%	65.2%
2026-09-07T17:07:08+00:00	79.9%	80.4%	86.6%	62.2%	65.2%
2026-09-07T17:52:13+00:00	79.9%	80.4%	86.6%	62.2%	65.2%
2026-09-07T18:37:18+00:00	79.9%	80.4%	86.6%	62.2%	65.2%
2026-09-07T19:22:22+00:00	79.9%	80.4%	86.6%	62.2%	65.2%
2026-09-07T20:07:30+00:00	91.0%	80.4%	86.6%	84.6%	60.3%
2026-09-07T20:52:35+00:00	91.0%	80.4%	86.6%	84.6%	60.3%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	91.0%	80.4%	86.6%	84.6%	60.3%
2026-09-07T22:22:44+00:00	91.0%	80.4%	86.6%	84.6%	60.3%
2026-09-07T23:07:49+00:00	91.0%	80.4%	90.9%	84.6%	60.3%
2026-09-07T23:52:54+00:00	91.0%	80.4%	90.9%	84.6%	60.3%
2026-09-08T00:37:59+00:00	91.0%	80.4%	90.9%	84.6%	60.3%
2026-09-08T01:23:04+00:00	87.1%	80.4%	90.9%	84.6%	60.3%
2026-09-08T02:08:09+00:00	87.1%	80.4%	90.9%	84.6%	60.3%
2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00	87.1%	80.4%	90.9%	84.6%	60.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	79%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	60%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260911-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗