KPIT / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 12 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

55%

42%

38%

32%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 53.5¢Risks 53.50u

AIFSNO 46.5¢Risks 46.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.50u · AIFS −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	61.0%	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	10.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	6.5%	—	—	29.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	4.5%	—	—	52.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	13.2%	—	—	35.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	36.9%	0.7%	—	36.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	63.6%	47.1%	—	46.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	20.0%	20.0%	26.4%	—	59.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	24.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	20.1%	72.6%	34.5%	—	62.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	0.4%	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	8.7%	47.5%	18.9%	—	53.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	31.9%	60.2%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	55.2%	62.9%	25.5%	—	59.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	47.3%	55.4%	—	—	55.4%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	24.4%	11.9%	35.6%	—	55.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	40.6%	5.3%	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	52.9%	49.0%	27.1%	—	47.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	46.0%	56.0%	—	—	34.4%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	24.3%	21.9%	67.9%	—	57.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	19.8%	0.1%	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	57.6%	0.1%	65.9%	0.8%	55.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	19.8%	6.0%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	5.7%	0.0%	38.5%	2.9%	34.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	8.7%	0.1%	35.9%	—	40.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	1.2%	0.2%	34.2%	65.8%	68.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	4.9%	0.1%	13.5%	—	65.1%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	55.4%	0.2%	52.7%	0.0%	58.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	76.8%	21.1%	63.7%	—	62.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	66.9%	17.2%	42.8%	78.8%	77.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	54.5%	78.7%	17.2%	—	79.8%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	48.4%	82.9%	21.4%	76.2%	56.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	35.5%	28.1%	17.0%	—	13.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	75%	84.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	82.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	81.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	81.0°F	2.3°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	80.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	79.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260912-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗