KPIT / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 12 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

55%

42%

38%

32%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 53.5¢Risks 53.50u

AIFSNO 46.5¢Risks 46.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.50u · AIFS −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T07:03:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T15:36:54+00:00	73.1%	45.7%	43.3%	76.6%	35.7%
2026-09-07T16:22:02+00:00	73.1%	45.7%	43.3%	76.6%	35.7%
2026-09-07T17:07:08+00:00	73.1%	45.7%	43.3%	76.6%	35.7%
2026-09-07T17:52:13+00:00	73.1%	45.7%	43.3%	76.6%	35.7%
2026-09-07T18:37:18+00:00	73.1%	45.7%	43.3%	76.6%	35.7%
2026-09-07T19:22:22+00:00	73.1%	45.7%	43.3%	76.6%	35.7%
2026-09-07T20:07:30+00:00	50.8%	45.7%	43.3%	76.0%	22.1%
2026-09-07T20:52:35+00:00	50.8%	45.7%	43.3%	76.0%	22.1%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	50.8%	45.7%	43.3%	76.0%	22.1%
2026-09-07T22:22:44+00:00	50.8%	45.7%	43.3%	76.0%	22.1%
2026-09-07T23:07:49+00:00	50.8%	45.7%	49.0%	76.0%	22.1%
2026-09-07T23:52:54+00:00	50.8%	45.7%	49.0%	76.0%	22.1%
2026-09-08T00:37:59+00:00	50.8%	45.7%	49.0%	76.0%	22.1%
2026-09-08T01:23:04+00:00	51.6%	45.7%	49.0%	76.0%	22.1%
2026-09-08T02:08:09+00:00	51.6%	45.7%	49.0%	76.0%	22.1%
2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00	51.6%	45.7%	49.0%	76.0%	22.1%
2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00	51.6%	45.7%	49.0%	73.0%	22.1%
2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00	51.6%	45.7%	49.0%	73.0%	22.1%
2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00	51.6%	45.7%	48.1%	73.0%	22.1%
2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00	51.6%	45.7%	48.1%	73.0%	22.1%
2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00	51.6%	45.7%	48.1%	73.0%	22.1%
2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00	68.5%	45.7%	48.1%	68.8%	65.2%
2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00	68.5%	45.7%	48.1%	68.8%	65.2%
2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00	68.5%	45.7%	48.1%	68.8%	65.2%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	68.5%	45.7%	48.1%	68.8%	65.2%
2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00	68.5%	38.2%	48.1%	68.8%	65.2%
2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00	68.5%	38.2%	54.1%	68.8%	65.2%
2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00	68.5%	38.2%	54.1%	68.8%	65.2%
2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00	68.5%	38.2%	54.1%	68.8%	65.2%
2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00	58.3%	38.2%	54.1%	68.8%	65.2%
2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00	58.3%	38.2%	54.1%	68.8%	65.1%
2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00	13.3%	35.6%	58.2%	63.8%	34.9%
2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00	13.3%	35.6%	58.2%	63.8%	34.9%
2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00	13.3%	35.6%	58.2%	63.8%	34.9%
2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00	13.3%	35.6%	64.1%	63.8%	34.9%
2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00	13.3%	35.6%	64.1%	63.8%	34.9%
2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00	13.3%	35.6%	64.1%	63.8%	34.9%
2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00	16.9%	35.6%	64.1%	46.5%	56.2%
2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00	16.9%	35.6%	64.1%	46.5%	56.2%
2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00	16.9%	35.6%	64.1%	46.5%	56.2%
2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00	16.9%	35.6%	64.1%	46.5%	56.2%
2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00	16.9%	35.6%	64.1%	46.5%	56.2%
2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00	16.9%	35.6%	62.9%	46.5%	56.2%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	16.9%	35.6%	62.9%	46.5%	56.2%
2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00	16.9%	35.6%	62.9%	46.5%	56.2%
2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00	19.9%	35.6%	62.9%	46.5%	56.2%
2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00	19.8%	35.6%	62.9%	46.5%	56.2%
2026-09-12T03:17:40+00:00	32.4%	41.5%	50.0%	74.6%	37.8%
2026-09-12T04:02:54+00:00	32.4%	41.5%	50.0%	74.6%	37.8%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	32.4%	41.5%	50.0%	74.6%	37.8%
2026-09-12T05:33:03+00:00	32.4%	41.5%	54.7%	74.6%	37.8%
2026-09-12T06:18:12+00:00	32.4%	41.5%	54.7%	74.6%	37.8%
2026-09-12T07:03:17+00:00	32.4%	41.5%	54.7%	74.6%	37.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	75%	84.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	82.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	81.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	81.0°F	2.3°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	80.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	79.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260912-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗